Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
